Friday, June 9, 2017

China and Russia Enhancing Cooperation

China and Russia continue to increase global influence, no longer the regional powers that the United States could dominate at the end of the Cold War in 1990.  Since 1985, both China and Russia have moved away from their stagnant dying central planned economies, albeit by different paths.


Russia's Path


In 1906, Russia tried wholesale foreign intervention starting a war with Japan.  12 years later, the government in the form of the Russian Empire ended with the Revolution of 1917.  In 1979, the Soviets again tried wholesale foreign intervention in Afghanistan.  12 years later, the Russian government in the form of the Soviet Union dissolved.


Russia initially Gorbachev in 1991 toward economic reforms through a loosening of political control of the member states within the Soviet Union.  Perestroika (literally “restructuring”) was meant to allow a restructuring of the controls without having to dissolve the Soviet Union.  Gorbachev's, policy of glasnost (literally "openness") was meant to draw in technology to improve the economy.  Anti-communist democracy liberals combined  with self-seeking private entrepreneurs (oligarchs like Boris Berezovsky) through an opening and then control of the television and print media.
State owned enterprises (SOE's) were sold to private control by national and regional political leaders through shady deals and fraud.  Control of these vast resources, which included banking, petroleum and telecommunications, sparked a feudalism resulting in the end of the communist government and oligarchs in control politics through money. 


As the economy began to improve for Russians and openness increased, an ethnically European Muslim population located far from the central government power in Chechnya began to push for independence.  That resulted in the first Chechen War from 1994 to 1996, which Russian President Boris Yeltsin temporarily ended with a peace treaty.


In August 1998, the Russian government devalued the ruble, defaulted on domestic debt, and declared a moratorium on repayment of foreign debt and declared bankruptcy.  Seeing the weakness in the Russian government, Chechen separatists began a second war 1999.  Yeltsin left office handing power directly Vladimir Putin.


By the end of the 1990's, democracy and freedom of speech had not brought a free market where all Russians could prosper and security was gone as Russia was rocked by a cycle of terrorist bombings.  Instead, Russian government bureaucrat entrepreneurs lead by Vladimir Putin took control of the major industries.  National government took power from regional governments.


China's Path


By contrast, China has historically not sought wars of foreign conquest.  China sent forces to neighboring North Korea in 1950 to stop an increase of American influence in Asia.  Then in 1979, China sent 30 divisions into Northern Vietnam for a short three-week war to stop a Vietnamese aggression in Cambodia.


China has the Uyghurs, an ethnically Asian Muslim population, located far from the central government power.  However, the Chinese has remained more stable - avoiding the destruction and the 160,000 people that the Chechen government claims died in the two wars.


Starting in 1986, China began in controlled stages a gradual shift away from a centrally planned economy toward privatization of State owned enterprises (SOE's).  Instead of uncontrolled wholesale fraud, China brought in foreign bankers to provide advice on how to move SOE into private corporations using western business models and practices. 


Corruption had run rampant in the new Russian government, which was not a stable democracy with an independent judicial system.  By contrast, the corruption that had begun spread quickly in China was able to be stopped by a stable government.  Regional government officials in China, had begun to personally profit from the sale of state (government) property, sparking the demonstrations in Tiananmen Square protests of 1989.  In less than three years, the Chinese population identified the corruption to central government in China, which moved to stop it.


Since 1986, the Russian government, now under Putin, has fought wars in Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine, and Syria.  The Russian foreign intervention costs Russia economically and may again lead to government-ending instability.


Since 1986, China has lifted 800 million people out of poverty and not started or fought in any wars. 


The Result


The United States must deal with countries and their governments pragmatically and with a long term strategy.  China and Russia are dealing with each other as equals because pragmatically they are two of the largest players on the world stage.  American's must also deal with China and Russia as equals, vice losers in the Cold War to be controlled by American hegemony.


Reference
Xi: China, Russia should enhance ties, boost role of SCO
By AN BAIJIE in Astana ,2017-06-09
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2017xivisitskazakhstan/2017-06/09/content_29683124_2.htm
SCO expansion boon for regional stability, development
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2017xivisitskazakhstan/2017-06/08/content_29672077.htm
The Invention of Russia: From Gorbachev's Freedom to Putin's War by Arkady Ostrovsky (June 28, 2016)
The Man without a Face: The Unlikely Rise of Vladimir Putin by Masha Gessen  (March 1, 2012)

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