Leadership Listening

How to Be a Great Leader - Simon Sinek Motivational Story... about Nelson Mandela's Leadership Technique (Video)

1.  This is an essentially good philosophy for good leaders.  In practice, there's a natural hierarchy that develops in large leadership organizations, so some will still stifle their opinion.

2. The leader should communicate the problem prior to the meeting if not an emergency.  Then, allow subordinates to develop thought-out courses of action (COA) prior to the meeting.  If possible, a summary of the COAs should be submitted for the leader to consider before changed due to subordinate hierarchical influence.

3.  If the solution to the problem is short cycled, the leader should know which subordinates are lower in the informal subordinate hierarchy and start with them.

Bonus points. The term "Good" and "Effective" are erroneously interchangeable when describing leaders. 

Often those perceived as jerks are very effective at accomplishing amazing and overall beneficial actions in spite of the hurt feelings of the subordinates. 

FIRST Amendment - Consumer Be Ware - Not Lazy

Opinion: Anyone who thinks the US and American-based big tech is not using propaganda to encourage US participation in a war between two corrupt countries is not watching with an open mind.

FACTS:

Saddam could not have covertly enough acquired yellow cake uranium (hundreds of train cars full) from Niger to enrich for a nuclear weapon.

A President clearly and knowingly lied to Americans, "If you want to keep your doctor, you can keep your doctor."

A senator clearly and repeatedly lied to Americans about the contents of phone conversations between a sitting President and a foreign leader.

POLITICO mislead Americans since 2017 by quoting "dozens of former intel officials," (more than 50 US government intel officials) and declared the story about Hunter Bid's laptop to be Russian disinformation without any direct evidence - only to find out in 2022 the FBI had known for years the story was in fact not Russian disinformation. When New York Post broke the story of Hunter's laptop, Facebook and Twitter both suppressed the story. CNN's Brian Stelter declared the Hunter Biden story "manufactured" by nefarious right-wing media.

CNN first claimed in 2017 the "Steele dossier" was authentic intelligence only to admit in November 2021 through Federal indictments that the Democratic Party and Hillary paid-for and distributed the opposition research, then claimed it to be foreign intelligence product.

The challenge comes for information consumers who are too busy or lazy or biased to consider the information and alternative narratives. Access to all information not biased suppression is the FIRST Amendment. Consumer-be-aware.

SO, propaganda against Americans... is not a Russian thing. Those who ignore other propaganda, are ignorant consumers of propaganda.

PLA NCO Training: No Longer Your Grandfathers PLA

BLUF: The PLA completely changed the way they train and employ NCOs - moving toward Western military doctrine. Not there completely, but steadily.

In the book, "China Inc.: How The Rise Of The Next Superpower Challenges America And The World", by Ted C. Fishman (April 2006), the author makes the comment, (paraphrased) If you have not studied China in the past 10 years, you don't know China.

In the wake of the Cultural Revolution (1965-1976), CPC leaders sought to decentralize control of the PLA to an extent in an effort to avoid future interference in political-civil relations. The decline and breakup of the Soviet empire was one significant factor enabling the Chinese to develop a PLA more focused on quality than sheer volume of troops.

The change in attitude toward the NCO corps of the PLA is a recent one, with the traditional role of the NCO understood to be one of “leader in rank only”, and a weak educational system to support that end. The PLA recently revamped the education of its NCOs. To become an NCO, certain educational requirements must be met. In 2005 for example, “The PLA established a goal of raising all junior NCOs’ education levels to high school equivalency, and all senior NCOs to the level of 3-year college (the Chinese equivalent of technical school) graduates by 2008. Although there is currently a lack of doctrinal standards for NCO education across the PLA, efforts are underway to accomplish this.

Over the last decade, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has rapidly expanded a program to increase technical capabilities across its enlisted corps by developing what it calls “made-to-order” noncommissioned officers (NCO). These targeted training NCOs (定向培养士官) receive technical training at civilian institutions before entering the PLA with NCO rank and benefits, bypassing the junior enlisted ranks altogether. While the program is not likely to become the PLA’s main source of NCOs, its continued expansion indicates growing trust in its outcomes and highlights its increasing importance in a suite of PLA recruitment and talent development programs.

One great sources of recent information on China:

Dennis J. Blasko, who was a US Army attaché in Beijing 1992-1996 is a retired Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Army with 23 years of service as a Military Intelligence Officer and Foreign Area Officer specializing in China. His book "The Chinese Army Today: Tradition and Transformation for the 21st Century" (2011) and other recent research papers are great sources. (He graciously reviewed my book on PLA Amphibious Forces in 2012.)

"There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent.”

― Lao Tzu

Why the Corruption and Instability of the PRC's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Matters

Note: The "People’s Liberation Army" (PLA) can simultaneously refer to the PRC Army as a whole or just the ground forces, or include the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN), the People’s Liberation Army-Navy Marine Corps (PLAN-MC), and the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) - plus PLA rocket forces....

Of the 15 ships that regularly do counter piracy operation off the Yemen and Somali coast for the last, 5 are US Navy, 5 are an alternating smattering of NATO GBR, GER, AUS, FRA, Dutch.... and 5 are PRC-PLAN. Since 2010, US Navy SEALS have been training the PRC's Navy, the "PLAN" in counter piracy operations. As Stalin said, quantity has a quality of its own. China did not have to be good. The lost half of the forces they sent into Vietnam in February 1979 and US analysts for years declared it a defeat. But the USSR had signed a treaty with Vietnam for a warm water port at the former USN base at Cam Rahn Bay in 1978. China pointed out to Vietnam that not one Soviet ship, plane or soldier came to help Vietnam...then left. The point was taken by Vietnam but missed by western analysts. Moreover, even the Russians showed that even being poorly trained - a massive well armed army can beat their opponent.

China is no longer the 3rd world military of the 70's. Since 2000, they have had more people studying engineering in China and the USA than live in the USA even counting illegal visitors. They are not the broke backward ill-supported Russian military. The PLA have bought technology around the world to jump start their military. This has included former Soviet aircraft carriers and combat hover craft (Zubr - that dwarf the US Navy LCAC). They bought a Zubr from Ukraine, then started building their own. These now regularly operate in the South China Sea between the PRC's newly built islands. The PLA have amphibious forces in the PLA naval and ground organizations - as well as their air force (PLAAF) controlling full airborne divisions. The PLA have stolen or acquired stealth and developed a Chinese version of the NATO Blue Force Tracker (where their good guys are in red.)

The PLA have been conducting several joint (air-sea-land) force exercises based on US doctrine each year for over 12 years. Since 2014, the PLA have hosted military training with Thailand and Philippine force in China, conducting combined joint amphibious force exercises. China has maintained battalion sized or larger PLA peacekeeper units in thirteen countries worldwide since 2012 including current deployments in Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan.

Much of the software and most of the hardware used in the West - including the device you are reading this on - is probably manufactured in China. PRC investment in the USA is huge and the PRC has owned up to half of Taiwan's manufacturing and financial institutions for over a decade.

So, if the largest military industrial complex in the world, which is simultaneously the largest threat to and supplier of goods to the USA is corrupt, that is important - maybe even more so if they don't use their weapons in a thoughtful controlled manner.

PRC Leadership Struggles - Spring 2022

The video below gives a peek behind the ongoing PRC leadership struggles. Corruption happens everywhere and China is no monolith of virtue.

"Why is China's military so shockingly corrupt? 

Will Xi Jinping be able to control the army?"

https://youtu.be/-5hENyRScto

It will be interesting to see if he is re-elected later this year at the People's Congress. Or, if China's version of embedded deep state will thwart him and install someone more radically imperial in actuality. Just because you get rid of someone you think is a corrupt tyrant dictator, does not mean you get a George Washington replacement. You often get another Mao, or al-Asad, or Stalin, or Pol Pot, or Castro or... you get the point.

China and Russia circumvention of American financial containment

Since the 2008 collapse, Russia and China have looking at building a currency system outside of the current one controlled by United States (Federal Reserve) and European Union.  For example people outside the US know that China's company Alibaba dwarfs Amazon/Paypal.  

Cultures (and societies) prosper and grow where they build durable multi-generational resources lasting into the future beyond the builder's lifetime... Roads, canals, fortresses, temples housing.  In a personal way, that future is their children.  Compare cultures who live day-to-day versus ones who build resources specifically to be multi-generational.  

China and Russia cannot depend on the Americans to build their future, especially when the central point US policy is described as containment.

China-Russia joint statement on International Relations Entering a New Erahttps://www.airuniversity.af.edu/CASI/Display/Article/2923495/itow-china-russia-joint-statement-on-international-relations-entering-a-new-era/

TIMCAST Episode on Russian - China Cooperation

Russia And China Issue Joint Statement Calling For 'New Era', World War III Is Already Started

https://youtu.be/AJ_9WjdFEYk

Book Review: The China Mirage, The Hidden History of American Disaster in Asia, by James Bradley (May 3, 2016

The China Mirage, The Hidden History of American Disaster in Asia, by James Bradley (May 3, 2016) provides an expanded companion book on the ideas Bradley expressed in his previous: "The Imperial Cruise: A Secret History of Empire and War." This book deals with the relationships between the Theodore and Franklin Roosevelts' and Japan and China, along with the background of the people like FDR's grandfather, who made millions in the illegal opium trade - at the same time the Queen of England was essentially the largest drug kingpin in the world. It also explains Chiang Kai-shek's China Lobby in D.C. of the 1930's and 40's. The book also draws conclusions about Mao Zedong and the lack of necessity and outcome of US involvement in WWII. Factors of reality in history involves many more factors than Bradley considers in the book.

Understanding North Korea - Politics and Life

This list of books on North Korea ( Democratic People's Republic of Korea - DPRK) provides and annotated recommendation for understanding the country. Other books previously mentioned below such as The Man on Mao's Right and On China also add to an understanding the DPRK in context with the region.
Nothing to Envy: Ordinary Lives in North Korea, by Barbara Demick (December 29, 2009) describes the extremes of life in North Korea from the 1950’s to late 2009 through people, who lived in the North Korean city of Chongjin.
Escape from Camp 14: One Man's Remarkable Odyssey from North Korea to Freedom in the West, by Blaine Harden (March 29, 2012) describes the Prison Camps in North Korea, through the life and escape of a man born inside one of the camps.  The book also describes the processes challenges with the transition common to defectors from North Korea who make it to South Korea, where each defector gets the three months of de-programming and why some go back to the DPRK after the deprogramming. This is a great follow-on (read) to Nothing to Envy.
The Coldest Winter: America and the Korean War, by David Halberstam (September 25, 2007) describes the Korean War’s major battles (beginning to end) and leaders including General MacArthur, and LtGen O. P. Smith (USMC). The book provides both big picture perspectives along with descriptions of individuals personal experiences in small unit actions.
The Aquariums of Pyongyang: Ten Years in the North Korean Gulag, by Chol-hwan Kang and Pierre Rigoulot (2001) clearly describes Kang Chol-hwan's imprisonment at the Yodok camp in 1977 at the age of nine and release 10 years later.

China and Russia Enhancing Cooperation

China and Russia continue to increase global influence, no longer the regional powers that the United States could dominate at the end of the Cold War in 1990.  Since 1985, both China and Russia have moved away from their stagnant dying central planned economies, albeit by different paths.


Russia's Path


In 1906, Russia tried wholesale foreign intervention starting a war with Japan.  12 years later, the government in the form of the Russian Empire ended with the Revolution of 1917.  In 1979, the Soviets again tried wholesale foreign intervention in Afghanistan.  12 years later, the Russian government in the form of the Soviet Union dissolved.


Russia initially Gorbachev in 1991 toward economic reforms through a loosening of political control of the member states within the Soviet Union.  Perestroika (literally “restructuring”) was meant to allow a restructuring of the controls without having to dissolve the Soviet Union.  Gorbachev's, policy of glasnost (literally "openness") was meant to draw in technology to improve the economy.  Anti-communist democracy liberals combined  with self-seeking private entrepreneurs (oligarchs like Boris Berezovsky) through an opening and then control of the television and print media.
State owned enterprises (SOE's) were sold to private control by national and regional political leaders through shady deals and fraud.  Control of these vast resources, which included banking, petroleum and telecommunications, sparked a feudalism resulting in the end of the communist government and oligarchs in control politics through money. 


As the economy began to improve for Russians and openness increased, an ethnically European Muslim population located far from the central government power in Chechnya began to push for independence.  That resulted in the first Chechen War from 1994 to 1996, which Russian President Boris Yeltsin temporarily ended with a peace treaty.


In August 1998, the Russian government devalued the ruble, defaulted on domestic debt, and declared a moratorium on repayment of foreign debt and declared bankruptcy.  Seeing the weakness in the Russian government, Chechen separatists began a second war 1999.  Yeltsin left office handing power directly Vladimir Putin.


By the end of the 1990's, democracy and freedom of speech had not brought a free market where all Russians could prosper and security was gone as Russia was rocked by a cycle of terrorist bombings.  Instead, Russian government bureaucrat entrepreneurs lead by Vladimir Putin took control of the major industries.  National government took power from regional governments.


China's Path


By contrast, China has historically not sought wars of foreign conquest.  China sent forces to neighboring North Korea in 1950 to stop an increase of American influence in Asia.  Then in 1979, China sent 30 divisions into Northern Vietnam for a short three-week war to stop a Vietnamese aggression in Cambodia.


China has the Uyghurs, an ethnically Asian Muslim population, located far from the central government power.  However, the Chinese has remained more stable - avoiding the destruction and the 160,000 people that the Chechen government claims died in the two wars.


Starting in 1986, China began in controlled stages a gradual shift away from a centrally planned economy toward privatization of State owned enterprises (SOE's).  Instead of uncontrolled wholesale fraud, China brought in foreign bankers to provide advice on how to move SOE into private corporations using western business models and practices. 


Corruption had run rampant in the new Russian government, which was not a stable democracy with an independent judicial system.  By contrast, the corruption that had begun spread quickly in China was able to be stopped by a stable government.  Regional government officials in China, had begun to personally profit from the sale of state (government) property, sparking the demonstrations in Tiananmen Square protests of 1989.  In less than three years, the Chinese population identified the corruption to central government in China, which moved to stop it.


Since 1986, the Russian government, now under Putin, has fought wars in Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine, and Syria.  The Russian foreign intervention costs Russia economically and may again lead to government-ending instability.


Since 1986, China has lifted 800 million people out of poverty and not started or fought in any wars. 


The Result


The United States must deal with countries and their governments pragmatically and with a long term strategy.  China and Russia are dealing with each other as equals because pragmatically they are two of the largest players on the world stage.  American's must also deal with China and Russia as equals, vice losers in the Cold War to be controlled by American hegemony.


Reference
Xi: China, Russia should enhance ties, boost role of SCO
By AN BAIJIE in Astana ,2017-06-09
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2017xivisitskazakhstan/2017-06/09/content_29683124_2.htm
SCO expansion boon for regional stability, development
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2017xivisitskazakhstan/2017-06/08/content_29672077.htm
The Invention of Russia: From Gorbachev's Freedom to Putin's War by Arkady Ostrovsky (June 28, 2016)
The Man without a Face: The Unlikely Rise of Vladimir Putin by Masha Gessen  (March 1, 2012)

Russian vs Chinese Reform Effects 1985 - 2017

The 1980's saw the fundamental structural change of the two largest communist countries in the world.  In 1985, the Soviet Union under Gorbachev and in 1986 China under Deng Xiopeng.  Since the bulk of the previous articles focused on China, the following begins to consider Russia.


Vladimir Putin endured harsh times in poor assignments as a KGB officer during the leadership of Leonid Brezhnev, who presided over the USSR from 1964 until his death in 1982. This period under what the west termed "détente" or relaxing, Brezhnev signed in treaties on armament control (SALT I, SALT II, Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty).  Putin saw Brezhnev as a mediocre leader who hated confrontation and so let President Nixon and then President Reagan push Russians into bad agreements.  Simultaneously, the USSR built up its armed forces and foreign military intervention at great economic expense.  Yuri Andropov, the former head of the KGB replaced Brezhnev in 1982 only to die 15 months later and be replaced by Konstantin Chernenko, who died 13 months later.


When Mikhail Gorbachev became General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in March 1985, the country's economy suffered from the extraordinary military expenditures and faced the United States economic prowess lead by Ronald Reagan. Gorbachev saw glasnost ("openness") as a means to get the USSR moving technologically.  The USSR produced more iron ore than the US but industry waste meant in produced half the iron.  Simultaneously, Gorbachev pushed a policy of "perestroika" (restructuring) in the Soviet government intending to rid the government of inefficiency as he removed it from industry.

From 1985 to 1990, Putin served as a KGB agent in Dresden, East Germany. Tiananmen Square protests of which started April 15, 1989 and lasted until June 4, 1989 deeply affected the Soviet government's actions in response to protests in Soviet constituent countries.  In 1989, as protesters began ransacking East German government buildings, Putin burned his KGB files, which he considered otherwise useless press clippings, in the Soviet Offices.  Born just after the WWII in the war torn St. Petersburg (Leningrad) to a hard life in a one room apartment, Putin had lived the brutal calculating life of a thug.

After Putin returned to St. Petersburg in 1990, he resigned from the KGB and quit the Communist Party, bailing out of a dying regime.  Putin got a job in the Mayor's Office in St. Petersburg, with responsibility for promoting international relations and foreign investments.  The 15 republics that made up the Soviet Union began to fall apart, and on 8 December 1991, Russia, Ukraine and Belarus signed the Belavezha Accords, which declared the Soviet Union dissolved.  On December 25, 1991, Gorbachev declared office of the President of the USSR extinct as he resigned tuning power over to Russian President Yeltsin.  The next day, the Supreme Soviet, which had been the Soviet Union's highest governmental body voted itself out of existence.

Liberals anticipated the rise of a democracy; however, the collapse of the Soviet Union strict structure brought severe drop fall in living conditions as poverty, crime, corruption, and unemployment skyrocketed.

Russia created private-national corporations from state owned enterprises (SOE) which created corporations such as Gazprom as a monopoly in the gas sector.

As people were starving in St. Petersburg, Putin reportedly directed $93 million in Russian state bulk metals to be in exchanged for foreign food aid that never arrived.  Starting in 1996, he rose through a liberal political party by managing elections, not running himself.

By mid-1998, Russian President Boris Yeltsin had appointed Putin as Director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor of the KGB.  On 31 December 1999, Yeltsin resigned, which made Putin the Acting President of the Russian Federation. Three months later, Putin won the Presidential elections with 53% of the vote.

June 2000, Putin upon assuming the office of President of Russia, Putin ostensibly moved to control the huge political power that capitalists in Russia had gained beginning with firing the Chairman of the Gazprom board and replacing him with Dmitry Medvedev, one of Putin's subordinates from St. Petersburg. 

After a constitutional maximum of two terms as President, Putin essentially installed the liberal looking Medvedev as President for one term.  This was long enough for the term of the president to be increased to 6 years.

The 1980's saw the fundamental structural change of the two largest communist countries in the world.  In 1985, the Soviet Union under Gorbachev began to move toward decentralized Soviet control and a multi-party democracy. While nearly simultaneously, in 1986 China under Deng Xiopeng moved toward "capitalism with Chinese characteristics" meaning free enterprise but one political party.

Since the 1980's, Russia became a state essentially ruled by one man, who dissolved democratic organizations while reconsolidating control over former state owned enterprises (SOE) with questionable closed accounting practices intended to promote Russian state policies.

Simultaneously, China brought in international accounting firms to advise the privatization of state owned enterprises (SOE) essentially phasing them out while lifting an estimated 800 million people out of poverty.

One result is that in April 2017 China has a GDP 2nd in world while Russia's GDP is 10th after Canada, Italy and Brazil.  Neither country is a multi-party democracy.  One is the largest geographically, and has immense natural resources, and the other contains the largest population.  Both continue to strictly control their populations.

References:

1.  Man Without a Face: The Unlikely Rise of Vladimir Putin, by Masha Gessen, March 5, 2013
2.  Dealing with China: An Insider Unmasks the New Economic Superpower, (April 12, 2016), by Henry M. Paulson,

(plus articles and books cited previously below)

Expanding and Sharing Terrorism Finance Intelligence

Trump announced the new Terrorist Financing Targeting Center, which will be co-chaired by the US (Department of the Treasury) and Saudi Arabia with collaboration of countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) 

Both the Treasury Department and the military at CENTCOM had financial intelligence units by 2005 stateside.  The Treasury had largely been concentrated on state sponsored elements, and the military on the battlefield elements.   Those efforts were combined beginning in late 2005.  By late 2006, a small cell of 20 people combining a mixture of US Federal agents having criminal investigative experience and US intelligence analysts began to work on the ground in Iraq in the Iraq Threat Finance Cell (ITFC).  The mission was to stop the flow of money to terrorists.

By the very early months of 2007, the cell was preparing target packages and co-opting US military units to conduct raids focused on removing the actual money and the path ways through which that money flowed.  Initially the primary effective operations were focused on Al-Qaeda and former regime elements, which were essentially Sunni populations.  The Shia targets, largely linked to the Iraqi government and Iran received top cover from the Iraqi government - meaning the democratically elected government too often gave the Shia targets immunity.

Moving the threat finance intelligence effort to the battle field allowed 24-48 hour turn around on intelligence collected and interrogations, conducted by agent-analyst-interpreter teams (AAIT).  These AAIT affected the flow of money in real time.

Terrorist groups are financially constrained like other military organization business models.  Bullets and bombs are only 5 percent of the cost of doing business. Terrorist groups must pay for mundane essentials including housing, medical care, food, payroll, death benefits to families, transportation of people and equipment, advertising and other administrative overhead.  Taking money away from the terrorist groups reduced terrorism events much greater than just payroll and bullets.


Terrorism financial intelligence efforts expanded to and in Afghanistan and  the rest of the world.  Trump is asking leaders in Muslims country to sharing the information and the burden.   Sharing financial and intelligence can be a double edged sword.

 

References

1.  U.S. and Saudi Arabia to Co-Chair New Terrorist Financing Targeting Center - 5/21/2017
https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/sm0092.aspx
2.  Analysis in Combat: The Deployed Threat Finance Analyst, By J. Edward Conway

Small Wars Journal article, July 5 2012
3.  Fact Sheet: Combating the Financing of Terrorism, Disrupting Terrorism at its Core

https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/tg1291.aspx
4.  Kirk Meyer, Former Director of the Afghan Threat Finance Cell

https://globalecco.org/kirk-meyer-former-director-of-the-afghan-threat-finance-cell

China vs US Influence Changing

  Most Americans, especially Republicans, see China as a threat.  However, things are shifting.  An April 4, 2017 Pew Research Center survey found 44% of Americans have a favorable opinion of China, up from 37% a year ago.  By contrast 28% Americans in 2012 were concerned about China’s military strength; however, that rose to 36% in 2017.  More than 50 percent of American's are concerned about debt held by China, cyber attacks, adverse environmental impact, loss of jobs to China.  Other concerns rated at less than 50 percent are trade deficit, China's human rights policies, and finally territorial disputes including tension with Taiwan.
  Meanwhile, China's moves to bolster economic ties to South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, and other countries in east Asia undercut American influence in Asia.
  America may have been a leader in the economic growth of countries around the world in the past.  The US has leveraged its leadership to an economic trade advantage for good reason.  Providing security for the world's maritime trade costs billions of dollars annually.  Countries ranging from Sweden to Singapore benefit from the security that the United States provides.  The economic burden to the United States in 2015 was $598 billion, which constituted about 54% of the United States' discretionary budget fiscal year 2015.
  The American national political cycle hinges largely 4 year presidential elections.  Chinese make plans on a much longer term of 20 years and reviewed and updated 5 year cycles. Asian countries in China's neighborhood have seen the global hegemony shift from Europe with Britain and France to the United States in the past hundred years.
  The invasion of Taiwan has not logistically been a serious threat since June 1950 when Mao saw the North Koreans invade South Korea.  In only days Mao began to shift hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops poised to invade Taiwan to Korea, believing the Americans would not hold at the 38 parallel.  Since then, invasion of Taiwan has not logistically or economically made sense.  Mainland China in several 20 year plans has begun to economically assimilate Taiwan.
  Countries in the South China sea have asked for military assistance from the US to ward off Chinese encroachment.  However, the United States has a global war on terrorism that requires the bulk of its operational forces to sustain.  In the long term - especially the past 15 years, the cost to maintain a global counterterrorism presence has gutted the American military.  The US needs relief, which allies in Europe cannot afford to fund.
  Along with and within China's the "Belt and Road Initiative" or One Belt, One Road (OBOR), China is cutting trade deals including favorable tariffs and large industry segment purchases with countries around the South China Sea.  The Chinese military is also interacting with the militaries of those countries, including providing disaster relief to the Philippines - traditionally a US role.  These countries likely see China on the rise in the long run, and the United States going the way of Britain and France.  China's neighbors are hedging their bets.
  China does not have a free market economy like the rest of the world.  As Deng Xiaoping said in the late 1980's, China has developed "capitalism with Chinese characteristics."  In the same way, China will develop democracy with Chinese characteristics.  The United States needs to be able to think and accept a different way of Chinese accomplishing similar out comes and not let the past be the only guide to predicting and preparing for the future.


References
Americans’ Views of China Improve as Economic Concerns Ease
http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/04/04/americans-views-of-china-improve-as-economic-concerns-ease/
Chinese goods to enjoy tariff exemptions in Vietnam
(Xinhua) 2016-11-02
http://m.chinadaily.com.cn/en/2016-11/02/content_27252048.htm
China remains biggest trade partner of Vietnam in January: Vietnamese customs
(Xinhua) 2017-02-14
http://m.chinadaily.com.cn/en/2017-02/14/content_28194696.htm
China becomes Vietnam's biggest catfish importer: Association
(Xinhua) 2017-05-09
http://m.chinadaily.com.cn/en/2017-05/09/content_29266544.htm
Number of Chinese visitors to rise in 1st four months: Vietnam tourism authority
(Xinhua) 2017-04-27
http://m.chinadaily.com.cn/en/2017-04/27/content_29113138.htm
Chinese naval fleet starts friendly visit to Vietnam
(Xinhua) 2017-05-06 
http://m.chinadaily.com.cn/en/2017-05/06/content_29232787.htm
Chinese naval fleet wraps up visit to Philippines
(Xinhua) 2017-05-02
http://m.chinadaily.com.cn/en/2017-05/02/content_29173326.htm
Philippines open to joint war drills with China: Duterte
(Xinhua) 2017-05-01
http://m.chinadaily.com.cn/en/2017-05/01/content_29156203.htm
China Red Cross provides Philippine quake aid
By Mo Jingxi(chinadaily.com.cn) 2017-02-14 18:48:19
http://m.chinadaily.com.cn/en/2017-02/14/content_28198865

Trusted versus Relied Upon - China - Russia and US

BLUF.  (Bottom Line Up Front)  The United States needs to co-opt China's efforts where they coincide with US interests.


Opinions
1.  The United States cannot trust China (PRC) to unilaterally act in the best interest of the United States. 
    (Note.  The US cannot trust most countries in the world to unilaterally act in our best interest.)
2.  The United States can trust that China will act in the best interest of China.
3.  China will not always act in the best interest of US.
4.  Starting in 1972, China's actions served (US interests) as a counter balance to Soviet global aggression and those Chinese actions dominated Soviet power, and ultimately the Soviet disintegration.
5.  Reagan scared the ba-jesus out of Iran – got the hostages released. Then, he then presided over the fall of the Soviet Union and the Eastern European communist bloc.
6.  Starting in 1992, as soon as it was achieved with the fall of the Soviet Union, the US began to shrink back from its global domination.
7.  Global power abhors a vacuum, and Russia under Putin took advantage to reemerge.
8.  China, as it has for thousands of years, will alternately ally itself with non-Chinese to China’s advantage.
9.  China’s leaders learned from the USSR’s demise, that China could not withstand a sudden or rapid shift to a democratic free market system.
10.  The US takes advantage of economic differences in poorer countries to our economic advantage.
11.  Developing countries - although not reaping equal wage benefit as American counterparts - immensely benefit from American investment and trade.
12. Trump is troubling the Chinese, through decisive actions that should be continued - in order to aggressively push China to accept its global responsibility.


Facts.  The United States has been defacto cooperating economically and militarily with the Communist regime since 1972.
The United States fought:
- Two wars against England.
- Two wars against Germany.
- One war against Spain.
- One war against Japan.
- One war against Italy.
Enemies become friends.
The United States does not completely trust nearly any country.  WikiLeaks reportedly provided evidence that we monitor our allies, like the Brits and Germans (Angela Merkel).
Note. Since that material is classified and I had a high level clearance, I still cannot go to that site without risking violating the law.  I would need to be a democrat in office.


The Chinese government suppresses free speech voices.
The US government has laws that allow surrogates to suppress free speech in American schools and college campuses.
The Chinese government suppresses the spread of Christian religion.
The US government has laws that allow surrogates to suppress free expression of Christian religion in schools and college campuses.
Pakistan is a democratic republic that suppresses free speech and religion.


Opinion.
The Russians and Chinese are cooperating – like two street thugs who have to deal with the cops.
China uses Russians to temper the American influence.
China hates Russians more than Americans.
China is extremely slowly moving to function like the US, not the corrupt dictatorship in Russia.
....extremely slowly
The United States without PRC presence would have a much more difficult time countering Russia.
The PRC without United States presence would have a much more difficult time countering Russia.
The world without the PRC government system currently in place would be impossible for the countries of the free world to control (provide economic and military security).


The Scorpion and the Frog
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scorpion_and_the_Frog
"A scorpion asks a frog to carry it across a river. The frog hesitates, afraid of being stung, but the scorpion argues that if it did so, they would both drown. Considering this, the frog agrees, but midway across the river the scorpion does indeed sting the frog, dooming them both. When the frog asks the scorpion why, the scorpion replies that it was in its nature to do so."


Sunday, a preacher on a local station talked about bull raised for rodeo bull riding.  He explained how they are naturally averse to having people ride them.  A cowboy cannot trust them to be benign.  But, the can be harnessed and relied upon to act in their nature and for what they perceive as their own best interest.


So:
The PRC being a commie government is bad - yes. 
(But,.. For now... I think there is no immediate solution that is better - but we need to find it and wisely manage the Chinese scorpion or rodeo bull.)

Learning China - Book Recommendations

Studying China, one great quote from a recent book stated something to the affect, if you have not learned about China recently, you don't know the China of today.  At the same time, if you don't understand China's history, you cannot understand China. 
Many books are available about the recently economic political and event military developments in China.   The place to start are On China by Henry Kissinger (published May 17, 2011), and The Man on Mao's Right, by Ji Chaozhu  (published August 25, 2008).  The authors are well-respected in their countries and explain historical and political context of events and decision making in China.  Dealing with China, by Henry M. Paulson, (published April 12, 2016) gives insight into current economic pressures and on and from China.
Starting to study a country that constitutes nearly a quarter of the worlds population could be daunting.  So, These three books form a solid foundation of study for someone wanting to learn about China of today. 
The other reading and my observations and recommendations:also follow below:
On China by Henry Kissinger, (May 17, 2011) is primarily detailed history of China, along with how those events have shaped its leaders. The book explains differences in how the Chinese both view themselves as an exceptional civilization and thinks about foreign influence and actions.
https://www.amazon.com/China-Henry-Kissinger/dp/0143121316
The Man on Mao's Right: From Harvard Yard to Tiananmen Square, My Life Inside China's Foreign Ministry, by Ji Chaozhu (August 25, 2008) describes from 1929 China through 1994 through the experience of the man who was a Chinese-English translator who had lived in China and the U.S. and primarily served at Panmunjam during the negotiations, and for Chinese Prime Minister Cho Enlai.
https://www.amazon.com/Man-Maos-Right-Tiananmen-Ministry/dp/1400158230
Dealing with China: An Insider Unmasks the New Economic Superpower, (April 12, 2016), by Henry M. Paulson, describes how Paulson began directly dealing with China while the head of Goldman Sachs in re-engineering their financial and telecom industries to western capitalist methods. Then, as Treasury secretary, influenced Chinese economic reforms reducing U.S. financial system disaster.
The Elephant and the Dragon: The Rise of India and China and What It Means for All of Us by Robyn Meredith (June 2008) describes more current economic situations in China and India and the implications for the U.S. especially through 2020.
The Three Faces of Chinese Power: Might, Money, and Minds, by David M. Lampton (April 30, 2008) describes the military, economic, and intellectual aspects of China's historic and current use of power.
Factory Girls: From Village to City in a Changing China, by Leslie T. Chang (October 7, 2008) is about the migrant Chinese population focused the lives of two 20-something women living in Dongguan, in Honk Kong's neighbor province of Guangdong. The author makes the point that if you have not studied China in the past 5 years, you don't know China. She also discusses and contrasts life back in the farming villages from where most of the immigrants come.
Prisoner of the State: The Secret Journal of Premier Zhao Ziyang, by Zhao Ziyang, Adi Ignatius, Bao Pu and Renee Chiang (May 18, 2010) is based on notes by Zhao Ziyang drafted during his house arrest after being fired subsequent to Tiananmen. Zhao, who had been appointed Premier by Deng to help liberalize China, made notes are based on his perspective, which was based on limited contact with the world and Chinese political dynamics outside his home after Tiananmen.
A Heart for Freedom: The Remarkable Journey of a Young Dissident, Her Daring Escape, and Her Quest to Free China's Daughters by Chai Ling (Oct 4, 2011) describes the student protesters at Tiananmen Square and her participation in the movement. She demonstrates an irresponsible ignorance of scope and inflated sense of self significance in the governing of China by comparing her 20-hour stint without water in a non-violent portion of protest to China’s leaders at the time who had endured the 3000-mile wartime march and their responsibility to govern a billion people.
For All the Tea in China: How England Stole the World's Favorite Drink and Changed History, by Sarah Rose (March 18, 2010) describes how between 1847 and 1850, the British stole tea plants from China and successfully transplanted them in India. The book also describes the British movement of opium for tea along with the cultural implications and impact on both China and India.
The Rape of Nanking: The Forgotten Holocaust of World War II, by Iris Chang, (1997), describes the Japanese 1937 attack and occupation of the Chinese city of Nanking in which 300,000 people were killed and 20,000 women were raped.
The Long March: The True History of Communist China's Founding Myth , Sun Shuyun (May 6, 2008), is written by a Chinese woman who describes the retreat of Chinese communist forces from eastern China in 1934 from the perspective of soldiers who took part as well as contains alternate descriptions of motivations, major events, and battles.
Stilwell and the American Experience in China, 1911-45 by Barbara Wertheim Tuchman (Oct 7, 2001) is a biography of U.S. Army General Joseph Stilwell who spent several tours in China ultimately leading the U.S. effort in Burma during WWII.
Confucius - In a Nutshell, by Neil Wenborn (September 7, 2010), describes the life and teachings of a master teacher referred to by the Chinese as "Kong Fu Tsu" which was translated to “Confucious” by western missionaries.
Pearl Buck in China: Journey to The Good Earth by Hilary Spurling (June 1, 2010), describes Pearl Buck's life (1892–1973) growing up in an austere missionary family in China during the Boxer Rebellion and China's civil war.
The Good Earth, by Pearl S. Buck (1932) was written as a novel but portrays a first-hand account of Chinese peasant life in the early 1900s including customs and culture.
1421: The Year China Discovered America, by Gavin Menzies describes his theory and rationale that Chinese discovered and mapped both coasts of America. Menzies starts with verifiable realities of Chinese maritime trade into the Indian Ocean and parts of Africa. And then, he cites real sources to extrapolate possible Chinese actions without actual evidence.  (Worth skipping.)

China OBOR Superceding the US and the TPP

Putting America first plays well to a US audience, but China may supersede the US through its own land and sea based economic trade routes development.  Late in 2013 China announced the "Belt and Road Initiative" or One Belt, One Road (OBOR) providing the alternative to in Asia to the US-led initiatives: the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.


The "Belt and Road Initiative" connects the People's Republic of China and 60 countries in Asia, Europe and Africa. The initiative utilizes resources of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which has as founding members that the US counts as economic allies such as the United Kingdom of Great Britain, Australia, France and South Korea.
The OBOR initiative contains two components: "Silk Road Economic Belt" (SREB) forms the land portion and "Maritime Silk Road" (MSR) comprises the maritime portion. 


The Silk Road Economic Belt initially consisted of three belts.  The northern belt connecting China with Europe through Central Asia and Russia.  The Southern belt included Southern Asia and the Indian Ocean.  However, China intends to combine the three an integrated belt passing through geographically central Kazakhstan.


Maritime Silk Road connects China with Southeast Asia, Oceania, and North Africa through the South China Sea, the South Pacific Ocean, and the wider Indian Ocean area.

The lesson for the United States shows the danger of national arrogance comes from the 1800's when Queen of England sent ships to China loaded with a train locomotive, rails cars, and enough track to connect the coastal port city of Tianjin with the capital city Beijing about 100 miles inland.  The Qing emperor rebuffed the Queen, he stated that they were "clever but useless" and since China was the center of the Universe, then anything not invented in China was of no value.  It would be about 30 years before China would allow a railroad to be built and remain in China.


Major American news organizations cover the TPP, however they treat the OBOR with significance.  America currently sits as first economically in the world, but that can change if the US gives in to blind American exceptionalism and does not continue to cooperate with the rest of the world's countries as they cooperate and develop apart from the US.

Foreign Balance after WWII

Establishment of Foreign Balance of Power after WWII


Global politics and power sharing between the big three, China, Russia and the United States in the early part of the 21st Century have their roots in the power sharing established in the events prior to and during World War II.


Events of World War II
1910: Japanese rule in Korea began in 1910.
1931: Japan invades China's northern province of Manchuria in September.
1937: Japan expanded operations into the rest of China in 1937
1939: Germany invades Czechoslovakia
1940: Germany invades Belgium and Holland and France
1941: Japan bombed Pearl Harbor.
1942: United States first counter attacked in Japan on April 18, 1942
1945: Japan surrenders to United States in February
1945: Japan surrenders to China in September


Losses
About 50 million people were killed during WWII.
25 million - Soviet Union
13 million - China
 6 million - Jews
 7 million - Rest of the world both Axis and Allied forces and citizens. Germany, Japan, Italy, along with the United States, Great Britain, France, Poland, Holland, Belgium, Yugoslavia, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, plus more.


The Second World War began for China in 1931 with the Japanese invasion of Manchuria. By the end of the year, the American legation and press bore witness to the rape of 30,000 women and up to 100,000 soldiers in the Chinese city of Nanking by Japanese during one 30 day period alone. Then the United States watched as Great Britain was attacked by Germany in 1940. The Chinese essentially would fight Japanese aggression until the United States began attacking in 1942 – five years later after the US lost about 2,403 dead and 1,178 wounded. By the end of the war, globally 50 million people were dead. 25 million Soviets died during the war, more than all of the other nations combined. Of the balance, 13 Million Chinese died along with the 6 million Jews at the hands of Axis powers. Through the Lend Lease Program, the United States gave $31.4 billion to Great Britain, $11.3 billion to the Soviet Union, $3.2 billion to France. China received $1.6 billion along with one US Army general.  China’s military – largely the Chinese Nationalist Forces, essentially bore all of the fighting alone against the Japanese Imperial Armed Forces for 5 years as Britain and France cut their losses in Asia and focused on Europe. By the end of the long vicious war, China lost in total more people than all of other nations of the world combined less the Soviet Union. Yet, China had received only 5 percent of the aide that the tiny island nation of Great Britain received and 14 percent of what the communist nation of the Soviet Union had been given.


China fought the Japanese for 14 years with 5 percent of the help the US sent to Great Britain.
America fought the Japanese for 3.5 years with 8 percent of China's losses.


From the perspective of the Chinese and Russians, they fought and lost more than the rest of the world.


Therefore, any interaction with the Chinese and the Russians must be understood in context of the price they paid.